[1]王卫星,许钰瑕,朱学义,等.经济新常态下石化企业发展战略再定位研究[J].常州大学学报(社会科学版),2017,18(01):42-51.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-042X.2017.01.006]
　Wang Weixing,Xu Yuxia,Zhu Xueyi,et al.On the Economic New Normal and Development StrategyRepositioning of Petrochemical Industry[J].Journal of Changzhou University(Social Science Edition),2017,18(01):42-51.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-042X.2017.01.006]
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经济新常态下石化企业发展战略再定位研究()
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常州大学学报(社会科学版)[ISSN:2095-042X/CN:32-1821/C]

卷:
第18卷
期数:
2017年01期
页码:
42-51
栏目:
经济·管理学研究
出版日期:
2017-01-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
On the Economic New Normal and Development StrategyRepositioning of Petrochemical Industry
作者:
王卫星; 许钰瑕; 朱学义; 王一舒
Author(s):
Wang Weixing; Xu Yuxia; Zhu Xueyi; Wang Yishu
关键词:
下行压力;  石化企业;  制约系数;  战略定位
Keywords:
downturn pressure;  petrochemical enterprises;  restricted coefficients;  strategic positioning
分类号:
F407.22
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.2095-042X.2017.01.006
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
中国经济发展进入“新常态”后,石化企业发展遇到了前所未有的严峻挑战,最突出的问题是经济效益滑坡。通过研究中国1978—2015年国民经济和石油消费发展速度发现石化经济发展同国民经济的发展周期相吻合,呈现出“朱格拉周期”规律。依此规律建立我国经济GDP发展的指数函数模型和二次函数模型; 选择下滑压力系数为制约系数,建立我国石化行业发展前景预测模型并对其“十三五”期间发展速度进行预测。提出石化企业未来应该由 “高速”发展转向“中高速”发展,并从产品结构、人才资源、经营政策、发展理念等方面提出了石化行业在新常态下进行战略调整的建议。
Abstract:
After China’s economic development has entered into “new normal”, the development of petrochemical enterprises are faced with unprecedented challenges. The most obvious problem is the economic downturn. By studying the speed of GDP and oil consumption from 1978 to 2015, it is found out that petrochemical economic development is consistent with the development cycle of national economy, which demonstrates the rule of “juglar cycles”. According to this rule, the model of Exponential Function and Quadratic functions is established. Downward pressure is chosen as restricted coefficients. Then the forecast model of China’s petrochemical industry development prospect is established. Finally, the growth rate of petrochemical enterprises is forecasted during the 13th Five-Year Plan period by using the model. According to the prediction, the future development strategy of petrochemical enterprises is proposed to shift from the previous high speed to a medium-to-high speed growth. Suggestions of strategic positioning are made in the aspects of product structure, human resources, management policies, developing philosophy for petrochemical industry in new normal.

参考文献/References:

[1]彭丽.增速显回落缓中见趋稳——石化行业经济运行分析与展望(一)[J].中国石油和化工,2012(9):10-11.[2]管清友.石油行业进入温和增长周期[J].中国石油企业,2012(9):20-21.[3]公维凤,王传会,周德群,等.双强度约束下行业低碳经济增长路径优化研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2013,23(6):29-36.[4]中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016:285-291.[5]丁一. 中国经济未来呈“L型走势”[EB/OL].(2016-01-14)[2016-05-31]. http://www.24en.com/read/news/politics/182129.html.[6]马士成,何友文.基于奇异谱理论的经济周期测度[J].货币时论,2011(3):28-35.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
作者简介:王卫星,管理学博士,常州大学商学院教授,硕士生导师; 许钰瑕,常州大学商学院学生; 朱学义,常州大学商学院特聘教授,博士生导师; 王一舒,管理学博士,常州大学商学院副教授,硕士生导师。基金项目:国家与江苏石油石化发展战略研究基地项目“经济下行压力下石化企业创新驱动力与风险抵御能力研究”(15SSL103); 江苏省高校品牌专业建设工程项目(PPZY2015C227)。
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-02-10