[1]徐光伟,徐逸君.经济政策不确定性抑制还是促进了企业创新?—基于中国EPU指数的经验证据[J].常州大学学报(社会科学版),2021,22(05):61-70.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-042X.2021.05.007]
　Xu Guangwei,Xu Yijun.Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Suppress or Promote Enterprise Innovation?:Empirical Evidence Based on China’s EPU Index[J].Journal of Changzhou University(Social Science Edition),2021,22(05):61-70.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-042X.2021.05.007]
点击复制

经济政策不确定性抑制还是促进了企业创新?—基于中国EPU指数的经验证据()
分享到：

常州大学学报(社会科学版)[ISSN:2095-042X/CN:32-1821/C]

卷:
第22卷
期数:
2021年05期
页码:
61-70
栏目:
财务与会计专题研究
出版日期:
2021-09-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Suppress or Promote Enterprise Innovation?:Empirical Evidence Based on China’s EPU Index
作者:
徐光伟; 徐逸君
Author(s):
Xu Guangwei;  Xu Yijun
关键词:
不确定性;  企业创新;  实物期权;  EPU指数
Keywords:
uncertainty;  enterprise innovation;  real options;  EPU Index
分类号:
F275
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.2095-042X.2021.05.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
新冠肺炎疫情肆意蔓延,全球贸易冲突不断,世界经济发展正面临高度不确定性。不确定性上升是抑制还是促进了企业创新活动?利用Baker等开发的中国EPU指数,检验了经济政策不确定性对企业创新的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:经济政策不确定性上升对企业创新投入与创新产出均有显著的正向影响。采用工具变量法、更换自变量衡量指标、更换因变量衡量指标等一系列稳健性检验后结果均保持一致。在政府补助较多、CEO具有研发经历、非国有产权、融资约束较小的企业,经济政策不确定性对创新的促进作用更强。企业配置过多金融资产对创新产生挤出效应,经济政策不确定性上升通过抑制企业金融化促进了企业创新。研究结论丰富了在经济政策不确定性背景下企业资本配置行为的研究,为我国应对百年未有之大变局、贯彻执行创新驱动发展战略提供了借鉴。
Abstract:
With the spread of COVID-19 and the continuous global trade conflicts, the world economy is facing a high degree of uncertainty. Does the rising uncertainty inhibit or promote business innovation? Using the EPU index developed by Baker, this paper empirically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation and its mechanism. The results show that the increasing uncertainty of economic policy has a significant positive effect on the innovation input and output of enterprises. By the use of a series of robustness tests such as instrumental variable method, replacement of dependent variable measurement indicators, and replacement of enterprise innovation indicators, the results are consistent. For the enterprises with more government subsidies, CEO with R&D experience, non-state-owned property rights and less financing constraints, there exists the greater impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation. Excessive financial asset allocation has a crowding out effect on innovation, and the rising uncertainty of economic policy promotes enterprise innovation by inhibiting enterprise financialization. This study enriches the literature on enterprise capital allocation behavior under uncertainty, and provides reference for China to cope with the unprecedented changes in a century and implement the innovation-driven development strategy.

参考文献/References:

[1]JULIO B,YOOK Y.Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles[J].The journal of finance,2012,67(1):45-83.
[2]GULEN H, ION M. Policy uncertainty and corporate investment[J]. Review of financial studies, 2016, 29(3):523-564.
[3]王朝阳,张雪兰,包慧娜.经济政策不确定性与企业资本结构动态调整及稳杠杆[J].中国工业经济,2018(12):134-151.
[4]于文超,梁平汉.不确定性、营商环境与民营企业经营活力[J].中国工业经济,2019(11):136-154.
[5]申宇,任美旭,赵静梅.经济政策不确定性与银行贷款损失准备计提[J].中国工业经济,2020(4):154-173.
[6]李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗?:基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015(4):115-129.
[7]王义中,宋敏.宏观经济不确定性、资金需求与公司投资[J].经济研究,2014,49(2):4-17.
[8]BLOOM N,BOND S,VAN REENEN J.Uncertainty and investment dynamics[J].Review of economic studies,2007,74(2):391-415.
[9]KOETSE M J,DE GROOT H L F,FLORAX R J G M.A meta-analysis of the investment-uncertainty relationship[J].Southern economic journal,2009,76(1):283-306.
[10]KRASTEVA S,YILDIRIM H.Information,competition,and the quality of charities[J].Journal of public economics,2016,144(12):64-77.
[11]MARCUS A A.Policy uncertainty and technological innovation[J].Academy of management review,1981,6(3):443-448.
[12]ROSS J M,FISCH J H,VARGA E.Unlocking the value of real options:how firm-specific learning conditions affect R&D investments under uncertainty[J].Strategic entrepreneurship journal,2018,12(3):335-353.
[13]ORHANGAZI ?.Financialisation and capital accumulation in the non-financial corporate sector:a theoretical and empirical investigation on the US economy:1973-2003[J].Cambridge journal of economics,2008,32(6):863-886.
[14]顾夏铭,陈勇民,潘士远.经济政策不确定性与创新:基于我国上市公司的实证分析[J].经济研究,2018,53(2):109-123.
[15]BAKER S R,BLOOM N,DAVIS S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2016,131(4):1593-1636.
[16]鞠晓生,卢荻,虞义华.融资约束、营运资本管理与企业创新可持续性[J].经济研究,2013,48(1):4-16.
[17]ALLEN F,QIAN J,QIAN M J.Law,finance,and economic growth in China[J].Journal of financial economics,2005,77(1):57-116.
[18]HADLOCK C J,PIERCE J R.New evidence on measuring financial constraints:moving beyond the KZ index[J].The review of financial studies,2010,23(5):1909-1940.
[19]彭俞超,韩珣,李建军.经济政策不确定性与企业金融化[J].中国工业经济,2018(1):137-155.
[20]潘海英,王春凤.实体企业金融化抑制了企业创新吗?:基于高质量发展背景下企业创新双元视角[J].南京审计大学学报,2020,17(2):49-58.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
作者简介:徐光伟,管理学博士,常州大学商学院副教授,硕士研究生导师; 徐逸君,常州大学商学院硕士研究生。 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年项目“区域一体化与企业异地投资:空间偏好、进入模式与经济后果”(72103026)。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01